Predictions · Challenge League · outside model coverage

Kriens

02
Won

Yverdon

The model leans Yverdon at 60%. Expected goals: Kriens 1.27, Yverdon 2.73. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 68%. Kriens won 3 of their last 6; Yverdon won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Kriens15%6.74
XDraw18%5.69
2Yverdon68%1.48

Pick: Yverdon. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 85%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.27 – 2.73
LineOverUnder
1.591%9%
2.576%24%
3.557%43%
Both teams to scoreYes67%No33%

Most likely scores

  • 128.7%
  • 137.9%
  • 026.8%
  • 116.3%
  • 036.2%
  • 225.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 62% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Yverdon −1.5
Kriens lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.56%94%
-16%9%85%
-0.515%85%
015%16%68%
+0.532%68%
+132%20%48%
+1.552%48%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.