Yverdon
Wil
The model leans Yverdon at 56%. Expected goals: Yverdon 2.26, Wil 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 58%. Yverdon won 3 of their last 6; Wil won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Yverdon | 65% | 1.55 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.85 | – | – | – |
| 2Wil | 15% | 6.78 | – | – | – |
Pick: Yverdon. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.26 – 1.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.7%
- 1–18.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 3–17.4%
- 3–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 57% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Yverdon −1| Yverdon line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| -1 | 43% | 23% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 10% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.