Wil
Xamax
The model leans Wil at 36%. Expected goals: Wil 1.45, Xamax 1.40. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 59%. Wil won 1 of their last 6; Xamax won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wil | 37% | 2.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.65 | – | – | – |
| 2Xamax | 35% | 2.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: Wil. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.45 – 1.40| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–06.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Wil 0| Wil line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 20% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 20% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.