Xamax
Yverdon
The model leans Yverdon at 44%. Expected goals: Xamax 1.63, Yverdon 2.07. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 71%. Xamax won 3 of their last 6; Yverdon won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Xamax | 30% | 3.35 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.38 | – | – | – |
| 2Yverdon | 47% | 2.11 | – | – | – |
Pick: Yverdon. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.63 – 2.07| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.7%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–36.0%
- 0–25.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Yverdon −0.5| Xamax line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 16% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 21% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 20% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.