Yverdon
Aarau
The model leans Yverdon at 41%. Expected goals: Yverdon 2.18, Aarau 1.87. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 76%. Yverdon won 3 of their last 6; Aarau won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Yverdon | 45% | 2.22 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.59 | – | – | – |
| 2Aarau | 33% | 3.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Yverdon. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.18 – 1.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% |
| Both teams to score | Yes75% | No25% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–17.1%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–15.6%
- 3–25.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 65% · BTTS Yes 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Yverdon −0.5| Yverdon line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 19% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 20% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 16% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.