Etoile Carouge
Aarau
The model leans Aarau at 50%. Expected goals: Etoile Carouge 1.54, Aarau 2.12. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%. Etoile Carouge won 2 of their last 6; Aarau won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Etoile Carouge | 27% | 3.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.43 | – | – | – |
| 2Aarau | 50% | 1.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: Aarau. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.54 – 2.12| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.9%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–26.9%
- 2–16.5%
- 1–36.3%
- 0–25.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Aarau −0.5| Etoile Carouge line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 15% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 21% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 21% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.