Aarau
Xamax
The model leans Aarau at 56%. Expected goals: Aarau 2.67, Xamax 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 70%. Aarau won 2 of their last 6; Xamax won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aarau | 65% | 1.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.45 | – | – | – |
| 2Xamax | 17% | 5.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Aarau. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.67 – 1.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 57% | 43% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–16.5%
- 2–06.4%
- 2–25.8%
- 3–05.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 62% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Aarau −1.5| Aarau line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| -1 | 45% | 21% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 17% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 10% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.