Wil
Aarau
The model leans Aarau at 50%. Expected goals: Wil 1.25, Aarau 1.97. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%. Wil won 1 of their last 6; Aarau won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wil | 23% | 4.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.19 | – | – | – |
| 2Aarau | 53% | 1.89 | – | – | – |
Pick: Aarau. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.25 – 1.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–17.9%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–36.3%
- 2–16.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Aarau −0.5| Wil line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 14% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 22% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 22% | 32% |
| +1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.