Winterthur
Wil
The model leans Winterthur at 36%. Expected goals: Winterthur 1.50, Wil 1.46. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 61%. Winterthur won 2 of their last 6; Wil won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Winterthur | 37% | 2.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Wil | 36% | 2.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: Winterthur. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.50 – 1.46| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–07.8%
- 0–17.6%
- 2–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Winterthur 0| Winterthur line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 20% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 25% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.