Predictions · Challenge League · outside model coverage

FC Rapperswil-Jona

02
Lost

Winterthur

The model leans FC Rapperswil-Jona at 51%. Expected goals: FC Rapperswil-Jona 2.48, Winterthur 1.53. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 72%. FC Rapperswil-Jona won 1 of their last 6; Winterthur won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FC Rapperswil-Jona58%1.73
XDraw20%4.98
2Winterthur22%4.53

Pick: FC Rapperswil-Jona. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.48 – 1.53
LineOverUnder
1.591%9%
2.576%24%
3.557%43%
Both teams to scoreYes72%No28%

Most likely scores

  • 218.5%
  • 317.1%
  • 116.9%
  • 226.5%
  • 205.6%
  • 325.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 62% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FC Rapperswil-Jona −1
FC Rapperswil-Jona lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.538%62%
-138%21%42%
-0.558%42%
058%19%23%
+0.577%23%
+177%13%10%
+1.590%10%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.