Winterthur
FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
The model leans FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 46%. Expected goals: Winterthur 1.44, FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.94. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%. Winterthur won 2 of their last 6; FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Winterthur | 28% | 3.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.18 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 48% | 2.07 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.44 – 1.94| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.5%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–16.8%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–16.6%
- 0–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy −0.5| Winterthur line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 16% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 22% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 21% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.