Winterthur
Yverdon
The model leans Yverdon at 53%. Expected goals: Winterthur 1.42, Yverdon 2.55. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 71%. Winterthur won 2 of their last 6; Yverdon won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Winterthur | 19% | 5.15 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.14 | – | – | – |
| 2Yverdon | 61% | 1.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: Yverdon. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.42 – 2.55| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 56% | 44% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.7%
- 1–37.4%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.2%
- 0–26.1%
- 2–35.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Yverdon −1| Winterthur line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 12% | 80% |
| -0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| 0 | 20% | 18% | 62% |
| +0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| +1 | 38% | 21% | 41% |
| +1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.