Predictions · Challenge League · outside model coverage

Wil

02
Lost

Kriens

The model leans Wil at 51%. Expected goals: Wil 1.91, Kriens 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%. Wil won 1 of their last 6; Kriens won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Wil55%1.80
XDraw24%4.13
2Kriens20%4.91

Pick: Wil. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.91 – 1.09
LineOverUnder
1.580%20%
2.558%42%
3.535%65%
Both teams to scoreYes57%No43%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.3%
  • 219.9%
  • 109.5%
  • 209.0%
  • 316.3%
  • 305.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Wil −1
Wil lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.533%67%
-133%23%44%
-0.556%44%
056%22%21%
+0.579%21%
+179%13%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.