Xamax
Kriens
The model leans Xamax at 56%. Expected goals: Xamax 2.52, Kriens 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 65%. Xamax won 3 of their last 6; Kriens won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Xamax | 65% | 1.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Kriens | 16% | 6.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: Xamax. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.52 – 1.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.2%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–17.3%
- 3–06.4%
- 1–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Xamax −1| Xamax line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 21% | 34% |
| -0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| 0 | 66% | 18% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 10% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.