Stade Nyonnais
Etoile Carouge
The model leans Etoile Carouge at 44%. Expected goals: Stade Nyonnais 1.03, Etoile Carouge 1.53. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%. Stade Nyonnais won 0 of their last 6; Etoile Carouge won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stade Nyonnais | 24% | 4.10 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.56 | – | – | – |
| 2Etoile Carouge | 47% | 2.11 | – | – | – |
Pick: Etoile Carouge. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.03 – 1.53| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–08.0%
- 0–07.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Etoile Carouge −0.5| Stade Nyonnais line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 16% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 26% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.