Union Berlin
Ipswich Town
The model leans Ipswich Town at 37%. Expected goals: Union Berlin 1.25, Ipswich Town 1.37. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Union Berlin won 1 of their last 6; Ipswich Town won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Union Berlin | 33% | 3.04 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.48 | – | – | – |
| 2Ipswich Town | 38% | 2.61 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ipswich Town. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.25 – 1.37| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 46% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Union Berlin 0| Union Berlin line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 19% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 21% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.