Ipswich Town
Sunderland
The model leans Sunderland at 31%. Expected goals: Ipswich Town 1.08, Sunderland 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%. Ipswich Town won 5 of their last 6; Sunderland won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ipswich Town | 33% | 3.08 | 2.80 | 34% | −2 |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.17 | 3.25 | 29% | +2 |
| 2Sunderland | 36% | 2.78 | 2.63 | 36% | 0 |
Pick: Sunderland. Calibrated probability 31% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.08 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.3%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–010.7%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ipswich Town 0| Ipswich Town line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 20% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 22% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.