Sunderland
Fulham
The model leans Sunderland at 29%. Expected goals: Sunderland 1.03, Fulham 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%. Sunderland won 5 of their last 6; Fulham won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sunderland | 34% | 2.96 | 2.25 | 42% | −8 |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.02 | 3.30 | 29% | +4 |
| 2Fulham | 33% | 3.03 | 3.25 | 29% | +4 |
Pick: Sunderland. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 34%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 67%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.03 – 1.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.3%
- 0–113.1%
- 0–013.0%
- 2–17.0%
- 2–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sunderland 0| Sunderland line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 22% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 30% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.