Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage

Fulham

10
Won

VfB Stuttgart

The model leans Fulham at 42%. Expected goals: Fulham 1.61, VfB Stuttgart 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. Fulham won 2 of their last 3; VfB Stuttgart won 2 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Fulham45%2.21
XDraw27%3.71
2VfB Stuttgart28%3.59

Pick: Fulham. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.61 – 1.22
LineOverUnder
1.577%23%
2.554%46%
3.531%69%
Both teams to scoreYes56%No44%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.6%
  • 109.5%
  • 219.3%
  • 207.6%
  • 017.2%
  • 127.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Fulham −0.5
Fulham lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.524%76%
-124%22%54%
-0.546%54%
046%25%29%
+0.571%29%
+171%17%12%
+1.588%12%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.