Farense
Fulham
The model leans Fulham at 50%. Expected goals: Farense 0.57, Fulham 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 68%. Farense won 2 of their last 5; Fulham won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Farense | 15% | 6.60 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.17 | – | – | – |
| 2Fulham | 53% | 1.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fulham. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.57 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 0–120.2%
- 0–015.6%
- 0–213.0%
- 1–111.4%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fulham −0.5| Farense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 12% | 84% |
| -0.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| 0 | 16% | 29% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.