Farense
Felgueiras 1932
The model leans Draw at 37%. Expected goals: Farense 0.78, Felgueiras 1932 0.68. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 72%. Farense won 2 of their last 5; Felgueiras 1932 won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Farense | 33% | 3.03 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 40% | 2.51 | – | – | – |
| 2Felgueiras 1932 | 27% | 3.68 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.78 – 0.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 82% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 94% |
| Both teams to score | Yes27% | No73% |
Most likely scores
- 0–023.4%
- 1–018.1%
- 0–115.9%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–07.0%
- 0–25.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Farense 0| Farense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 23% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 37% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 20% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.