Feirense
Felgueiras 1932
The model leans Draw at 35%. Expected goals: Feirense 0.87, Felgueiras 1932 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 67%. Feirense won 0 of their last 3; Felgueiras 1932 won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Feirense | 33% | 3.00 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.71 | – | – | – |
| 2Felgueiras 1932 | 30% | 3.37 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 35% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.87 – 0.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes32% | No68% |
Most likely scores
- 0–018.7%
- 1–016.3%
- 0–115.1%
- 1–113.1%
- 2–07.1%
- 0–26.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 62% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Feirense 0| Feirense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 23% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 34% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 21% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.