Felgueiras 1932
AVS Futebol SAD
The model leans Felgueiras 1932 at 50%. Expected goals: Felgueiras 1932 1.27, AVS Futebol SAD 0.67. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 64%. Felgueiras 1932 won 1 of their last 4; AVS Futebol SAD won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Felgueiras 1932 | 50% | 2.01 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.13 | – | – | – |
| 2AVS Futebol SAD | 18% | 5.46 | – | – | – |
Pick: Felgueiras 1932. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.27 – 0.67| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.3%
- 0–014.4%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–011.6%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Felgueiras 1932 −0.5| Felgueiras 1932 line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 14% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.