Felgueiras 1932
Chaves
The model leans Felgueiras 1932 at 36%. Expected goals: Felgueiras 1932 1.05, Chaves 0.88. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 60%. Felgueiras 1932 won 1 of their last 4; Chaves won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Felgueiras 1932 | 37% | 2.67 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.94 | – | – | – |
| 2Chaves | 29% | 3.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: Felgueiras 1932. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.05 – 0.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.2%
- 0–014.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.8%
- 2–08.0%
- 2–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Felgueiras 1932 0| Felgueiras 1932 line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 23% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.