Sporting CP B
Chaves
The model leans Sporting CP B at 36%. Expected goals: Sporting CP B 1.09, Chaves 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 59%. Sporting CP B won 3 of their last 4; Chaves won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting CP B | 38% | 2.63 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 2.99 | – | – | – |
| 2Chaves | 29% | 3.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sporting CP B. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.09 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.8%
- 0–013.6%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.3%
- 2–08.0%
- 2–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sporting CP B 0| Sporting CP B line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.