Sporting CP B
Farense
The model leans Draw at 37%. Expected goals: Sporting CP B 0.85, Farense 0.65. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 71%. Sporting CP B won 3 of their last 4; Farense won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting CP B | 37% | 2.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 39% | 2.58 | – | – | – |
| 2Farense | 25% | 4.06 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.85 – 0.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 81% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 93% |
| Both teams to score | Yes28% | No72% |
Most likely scores
- 0–022.2%
- 1–018.9%
- 0–114.5%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–08.1%
- 2–15.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sporting CP B 0| Sporting CP B line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 25% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 36% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 19% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.