Penafiel
Sporting CP B
The model leans Penafiel at 36%. Expected goals: Penafiel 1.01, Sporting CP B 0.84. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 63%. Penafiel won 2 of their last 4; Sporting CP B won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Penafiel | 37% | 2.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
| 2Sporting CP B | 28% | 3.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: Penafiel. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.01 – 0.84| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.8%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–113.3%
- 2–08.0%
- 2–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Penafiel 0| Penafiel line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 24% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 32% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 20% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.