Torreense
Penafiel
The model leans Torreense at 50%. Expected goals: Torreense 1.39, Penafiel 0.67. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 62%. Torreense won 0 of their last 3; Penafiel won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Torreense | 53% | 1.88 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.33 | – | – | – |
| 2Penafiel | 17% | 5.95 | – | – | – |
Pick: Torreense. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.39 – 0.67| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.7%
- 0–012.7%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–18.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Torreense −0.5| Torreense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 28% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 13% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.