Lusitania Lourosa
Torreense
The model leans Torreense at 45%. Expected goals: Lusitania Lourosa 0.88, Torreense 1.41. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 54%. Lusitania Lourosa won 3 of their last 4; Torreense won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lusitania Lourosa | 22% | 4.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.37 | – | – | – |
| 2Torreense | 48% | 2.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: Torreense. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.88 – 1.41| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.2%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.1%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Torreense −0.5| Lusitania Lourosa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 16% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.