Amarante FC
Lusitania Lourosa
The model leans Amarante FC at 44%. Expected goals: Amarante FC 1.37, Lusitania Lourosa 0.87. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 55%. Amarante FC won 1 of their last 4; Lusitania Lourosa won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Amarante FC | 47% | 2.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.31 | – | – | – |
| 2Lusitania Lourosa | 23% | 4.41 | – | – | – |
Pick: Amarante FC. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.37 – 0.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.6%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.7%
- 2–010.0%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Amarante FC −0.5| Amarante FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.