Tondela
Amarante FC
The model leans Amarante FC at 39%. Expected goals: Tondela 0.74, Amarante FC 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 64%. Tondela won 1 of their last 3; Amarante FC won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tondela | 23% | 4.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.91 | – | – | – |
| 2Amarante FC | 42% | 2.36 | – | – | – |
Pick: Amarante FC. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.74 – 1.09| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 0–117.5%
- 0–016.1%
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–27.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Amarante FC −0.5| Tondela line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 17% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 32% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.