Leixoes
Tondela
The model leans Leixoes at 51%. Expected goals: Leixoes 1.74, Tondela 0.89. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%. Leixoes won 2 of their last 4; Tondela won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Leixoes | 56% | 1.78 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.88 | – | – | – |
| 2Tondela | 18% | 5.58 | – | – | – |
Pick: Leixoes. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.74 – 0.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.6%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.2%
- 0–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 45% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Leixoes −1| Leixoes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.