Leixoes
Uniao de Leiria
The model leans Leixoes at 38%. Expected goals: Leixoes 1.77, Uniao de Leiria 1.61. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. Leixoes won 2 of their last 4; Uniao de Leiria won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Leixoes | 41% | 2.44 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.06 | – | – | – |
| 2Uniao de Leiria | 34% | 2.90 | – | – | – |
Pick: Leixoes. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.77 – 1.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.7%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.0%
- 0–15.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Leixoes 0| Leixoes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 20% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 23% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 18% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.