Benfica B
Leixoes
The model leans Benfica B at 39%. Expected goals: Benfica B 1.51, Leixoes 1.25. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%. Benfica B won 2 of their last 4; Leixoes won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Benfica B | 42% | 2.38 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.61 | – | – | – |
| 2Leixoes | 30% | 3.30 | – | – | – |
Pick: Benfica B. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.51 – 1.25| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Benfica B 0| Benfica B line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 22% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 18% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.