Portimonense
Leixões
The model leans Portimonense at 36%. Expected goals: Portimonense 1.43, Leixões 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%. Portimonense won 2 of their last 4; Leixões won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portimonense | 38% | 2.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.61 | – | – | – |
| 2Leixões | 35% | 2.90 | – | – | – |
Pick: Portimonense. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Portimonense 0| Portimonense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.