Portimonense
Vizela
The model leans Portimonense at 37%. Expected goals: Portimonense 1.15, Vizela 0.98. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 56%. Portimonense won 2 of their last 4; Vizela won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portimonense | 38% | 2.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.10 | – | – | – |
| 2Vizela | 30% | 3.38 | – | – | – |
Pick: Portimonense. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.15 – 0.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.7%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.0%
- 0–111.7%
- 2–07.8%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Portimonense 0| Portimonense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 23% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.