Vizela
Amarante FC
The model leans Draw at 29%. Expected goals: Vizela 0.89, Amarante FC 0.92. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 63%. Vizela won 1 of their last 3; Amarante FC won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vizela | 32% | 3.17 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
| 2Amarante FC | 33% | 3.03 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.89 – 0.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 0–016.3%
- 0–115.0%
- 1–014.6%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–26.9%
- 2–06.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vizela 0| Vizela line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 21% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 33% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 22% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.