Amarante FC
Benfica B
The model leans Amarante FC at 39%. Expected goals: Amarante FC 1.17, Benfica B 0.84. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 60%. Amarante FC won 1 of their last 4; Benfica B won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Amarante FC | 42% | 2.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.05 | – | – | – |
| 2Benfica B | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
Pick: Amarante FC. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.17 – 0.84| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.7%
- 0–013.4%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.3%
- 2–09.2%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Amarante FC −0.5| Amarante FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 18% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.