Uniao de Leiria
Benfica B
The model leans Uniao de Leiria at 43%. Expected goals: Uniao de Leiria 1.64, Benfica B 1.19. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. Uniao de Leiria won 2 of their last 4; Benfica B won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Uniao de Leiria | 47% | 2.15 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Benfica B | 27% | 3.75 | – | – | – |
Pick: Uniao de Leiria. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.64 – 1.19| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.9%
- 0–17.1%
- 1–26.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Uniao de Leiria −0.5| Uniao de Leiria line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.