Vizela
Uniao de Leiria
The model leans Uniao de Leiria at 30%. Expected goals: Vizela 1.27, Uniao de Leiria 1.29. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. Vizela won 1 of their last 3; Uniao de Leiria won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vizela | 35% | 2.86 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.42 | – | – | – |
| 2Uniao de Leiria | 36% | 2.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: Uniao de Leiria. Calibrated probability 30% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.27 – 1.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–09.9%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.0%
- 0–07.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vizela 0| Vizela line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.