Farense
Torreense
The model leans Torreense at 37%. Expected goals: Farense 0.65, Torreense 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 70%. Farense won 2 of their last 5; Torreense won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Farense | 23% | 4.40 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Torreense | 40% | 2.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: Torreense. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.65 – 0.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 78% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% |
| Both teams to score | Yes29% | No71% |
Most likely scores
- 0–020.2%
- 0–119.2%
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 68% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Farense 0| Farense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 18% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 35% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 26% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.