FC Porto B
Penafiel
The model leans FC Porto B at 39%. Expected goals: FC Porto B 1.22, Penafiel 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 57%. FC Porto B won 0 of their last 3; Penafiel won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Porto B | 42% | 2.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.13 | – | – | – |
| 2Penafiel | 26% | 3.86 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Porto B. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 0.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.1%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–08.9%
- 2–18.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Porto B −0.5| FC Porto B line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 29% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.