AVS Futebol SAD
Sporting CP B
The model leans Sporting CP B at 37%. Expected goals: AVS Futebol SAD 0.83, Sporting CP B 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 61%. AVS Futebol SAD won 1 of their last 4; Sporting CP B won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AVS Futebol SAD | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.94 | – | – | – |
| 2Sporting CP B | 39% | 2.54 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sporting CP B. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.83 – 1.08| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 0–116.0%
- 0–014.8%
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–27.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AVS Futebol SAD 0| AVS Futebol SAD line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 19% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 31% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 24% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.