Predictions · Liga Portugal 2 · outside model coverage

AVS Futebol SAD

01
Won

Sporting CP B

The model leans Sporting CP B at 37%. Expected goals: AVS Futebol SAD 0.83, Sporting CP B 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 61%. AVS Futebol SAD won 1 of their last 4; Sporting CP B won 3 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1AVS Futebol SAD27%3.77
XDraw34%2.94
2Sporting CP B39%2.54

Pick: Sporting CP B. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.83 – 1.08
LineOverUnder
1.557%43%
2.530%70%
3.513%87%
Both teams to scoreYes37%No63%

Most likely scores

  • 0116.0%
  • 0014.8%
  • 1113.3%
  • 1012.4%
  • 028.6%
  • 127.1%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: AVS Futebol SAD 0
AVS Futebol SAD lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.59%91%
-19%19%72%
-0.528%72%
028%31%41%
+0.559%41%
+159%24%16%
+1.584%16%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.