Predictions · Liga Portugal 2 · outside model coverage

AVS Futebol SAD

20
Lost

Feirense

The model leans Feirense at 34%. Expected goals: AVS Futebol SAD 0.93, Feirense 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 59%. AVS Futebol SAD won 1 of their last 4; Feirense won 0 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1AVS Futebol SAD30%3.34
XDraw33%2.99
2Feirense37%2.73

Pick: Feirense. Calibrated probability 34% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.93 – 1.06
LineOverUnder
1.559%41%
2.532%68%
3.514%86%
Both teams to scoreYes40%No60%

Most likely scores

  • 0114.4%
  • 0013.6%
  • 1113.5%
  • 1012.7%
  • 027.7%
  • 127.2%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: AVS Futebol SAD 0
AVS Futebol SAD lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.511%89%
-111%20%69%
-0.531%69%
031%31%38%
+0.562%38%
+162%23%15%
+1.585%15%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.