AVS Futebol SAD
Feirense
The model leans Feirense at 34%. Expected goals: AVS Futebol SAD 0.93, Feirense 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 59%. AVS Futebol SAD won 1 of their last 4; Feirense won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AVS Futebol SAD | 30% | 3.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 2.99 | – | – | – |
| 2Feirense | 37% | 2.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Feirense. Calibrated probability 34% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.93 – 1.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.4%
- 0–013.6%
- 1–113.5%
- 1–012.7%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–27.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AVS Futebol SAD 0| AVS Futebol SAD line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 20% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 31% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.