Hansa Rostock
VfB Stuttgart
The model leans VfB Stuttgart at 54%. Expected goals: Hansa Rostock 1.44, VfB Stuttgart 2.62. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 71%. Hansa Rostock won 2 of their last 6; VfB Stuttgart won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hansa Rostock | 19% | 5.30 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.27 | – | – | – |
| 2VfB Stuttgart | 62% | 1.61 | – | – | – |
Pick: VfB Stuttgart. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.44 – 2.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% |
| Both teams to score | Yes71% | No29% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.5%
- 1–37.5%
- 1–16.5%
- 2–26.1%
- 0–25.9%
- 2–35.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 65% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: VfB Stuttgart −1| Hansa Rostock line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 11% | 80% |
| -0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| 0 | 20% | 18% | 63% |
| +0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| +1 | 37% | 20% | 42% |
| +1.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.