Saarbrücken
Hansa Rostock
The model leans Hansa Rostock at 50%. Expected goals: Saarbrücken 1.39, Hansa Rostock 1.99. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%. Saarbrücken won 2 of their last 5; Hansa Rostock won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Saarbrücken | 26% | 3.87 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Hansa Rostock | 51% | 1.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hansa Rostock. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.39 – 1.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.4%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–16.8%
- 0–26.8%
- 2–16.5%
- 2–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hansa Rostock −0.5| Saarbrücken line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 15% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 22% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 22% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.