Augsburg
Saarbrücken
The model leans Augsburg at 57%. Expected goals: Augsburg 2.15, Saarbrücken 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%. Augsburg won 3 of their last 5; Saarbrücken won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Augsburg | 65% | 1.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.70 | – | – | – |
| 2Saarbrücken | 14% | 7.30 | – | – | – |
Pick: Augsburg. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.15 – 0.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.0%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–07.8%
- 3–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Augsburg −1| Augsburg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| -0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| 0 | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.