Augsburg
Schalke 04
The model leans Augsburg at 40%. Expected goals: Augsburg 1.43, Schalke 04 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. Augsburg won 3 of their last 5; Schalke 04 won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Augsburg | 44% | 2.29 | 2.20 | 43% | +1 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.45 | 3.60 | 26% | +3 |
| 2Schalke 04 | 27% | 3.65 | 3.10 | 31% | −3 |
Pick: Augsburg. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 1.08| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–08.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Augsburg −0.5| Augsburg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.