Schalke 04
Fagiano Okayama FC
The model leans Schalke 04 at 37%. Expected goals: Schalke 04 1.22, Fagiano Okayama FC 1.04. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%. Schalke 04 won 2 of their last 5; Fagiano Okayama FC won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Schalke 04 | 39% | 2.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.21 | – | – | – |
| 2Fagiano Okayama FC | 30% | 3.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Schalke 04. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 1.04| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–110.9%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–07.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Schalke 04 0| Schalke 04 line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 23% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.