JEF United Chiba
Fagiano Okayama FC
The model leans JEF United Chiba at 34%. Expected goals: JEF United Chiba 1.28, Fagiano Okayama FC 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. JEF United Chiba won 0 of their last 6; Fagiano Okayama FC won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1JEF United Chiba | 37% | 2.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.38 | – | – | – |
| 2Fagiano Okayama FC | 34% | 2.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: JEF United Chiba. Calibrated probability 34% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.28 – 1.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–110.0%
- 0–08.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–27.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: JEF United Chiba 0| JEF United Chiba line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 21% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.